Election Predictions

Those standing around the water cooler have their election brackets at the ready.  Predictions are bouncing off the water cooler and below are the highlights.  As much as we like our predictions, if you would like to read details based on polling, fundraising, and other important data, we suggest reading Politico’s Forecast 2022 for California.

Vote Results – We are very confident in this prediction: most contested races will not have definitive results on election night.  It may take days, or more, for counties to finish counting mail-in ballots 

Statewide Candidate Races – Democrats will sweep.  Republican State Controller candidate Lahnee Chen has a small chance of winning despite the fact that Republicans make up only 24% of registered voters.  Chen has received the endorsement of all the major newspapers in California, including his opponent’s hometown newspaper the San Francisco Chronicle .  He also has significantly more funds than his opponent, Democrat Board of Equalization Member Malia Cohen.  

Statewide Ballot Propositions – No real surprises here.  Predicted to pass: 1 (abortion), 28 (arts in schools), and 31 (ban on flavored tobacco products).  Predicted to fail: 26 (gaming), 27 (gaming), 29 (dialysis), 30 (funding for zero-emission vehicles).  

As for the races for legislative seats and local offices, those standing around the water cooler think most of the contested races are too close to call.  A lack of public polls and a large number of undecided voters makes predictions tricky.  So instead of making more predictions, we will lace up our shoes and GOTV.  

We wish the best of luck to all you campaigners, candidates, staff, volunteers, and pizza delivery drivers.  

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